Last month, box office analysts started long-range tracking for Sony and Marvel’s highly-anticipatedSpider-Man: Homecoming, predicting a hugebox office opening weekendof $135 million. This projection far exceeds the debuts of the last twoSpider-Manmovies, 2012’sThe Amazing Spider-Man($62 million) and 2014’sThe Amazing Spider-Man 2($91.6 million). As we get closer and closer to the July 7 release date, more tracking figures have come in, and they’re significantly lower than the earlier projections.
Deadlinereports that box office analysts are predicting an opening weekend between $90 million and $108 million forSpider-Man: Homecoming. The report states that these are from industry trackers, and don’t represent the actual studio projections from Sony Pictures. These industry analysts report that the movie is “strong across the board,” tracking well with all age demographics, but, as is the case with most superhero movies, it’s tracking particularly strong among young males, most likely due to the rising star power ofTom Holland. The movie is also tracking strongly with families.
While the lower tracking figures may be disappointing, box office tracking certainly isn’t an exact science. Early estimates forWonder Womanprojected a debut between $65 million and $80 million, with the movie ending up earning an impressive $103.2 million, the highest box office debut for a female-directed movie, putting filmmaker Patty Jenkins in the record books. Box office tracking was also wildly off for 20th Century Fox’sDeadpoollast year, with many industry analysts projecting a debut in the $50 million range, which would have been a strong debut for an R-rated superhero movie.Deadpoolended up breaking the record for the highest R-rated opening weekend with $132.4 million, en route to $363 million domestic and a record-breaking $783.1 million worldwide. With all of that being said, it’s certainly possible thatSpider-Man: Homecoming, which starts a newSpider-Man trilogy, will actually debut much higher than this projection.
When Marvel struck a deal with Sony Pictures to share the rights to the belovedSpider-Mancharacter, there were early indications that Marvel was going to take a much different approach to the character. While the originalSpider-Manstarring Tobey Maguire andThe Amazing Spider-Manstarring Andrew Garfield both started off in high school, Spidey’s school life wasn’t addressed too much. It has been confirmed that Marvel is ditching theSpider-Man origin storyinvolving the radioactive spider, establishing Peter Parker as Spider-Man right away inCaptain America: Civil Warwithout revealing how he gained these incredible abilities. It has also been confirmed that Peter Parker will be a sophomore in high school duringSpider-Man: Homecoming, with the subsequent sequels in this trilogy likely centering on his junior and senior years of high school, spending much more time at the Midtown School of Science and Technology than its predecessors.
Tom Holland’s Spider-Man has already been confirmed forAvengers: Infinity War, while Marvel Studios president Kevin Feige recently confirmed thatSpider-Manis also returning in the final Marvel Phase 4 movie,Avengers 4. Kevin Feige has previously teased that the studio has big plans for Spider-Man, while Tom Holland has teased that he has signed on for six movies, hisSpider-Mantrilogy, plusAvengers: Infinity WarandAvengers 4, which leaves one mystery movie left to round out the actor’s Marvel deal. It’s unclear what this movie may be, but it will likely happen in Marvel Phase 4, which will kick off with three undisclosed movies in 2020, debuting on August 11, 2025, June 17, 2025 and August 06, 2025. Hopefully we’ll have more onSpider-Man: Homecomingas we get closer to the July 7 release date.
