Will Infinity War Obliterate All 2nd Weekend Box Office Records?

Marvel made box office history last weekend whenAvengers: Infinity Waropened with $257.6 million, easily beating the 2015 record of $247.9 million held byStar Wars: The Force Awakens. Not that it would have mattered, but Earth’s Mightiest Heroes faced no direct competition. And while that changes this weekend, with three new movies opening in (barely) wide release, the results will remain the same. The three newcomers, Focus Features’Tully, Electric Entertainment’sBad Samaritanand Pantelion’sOverboardwill all arrive in less than 2,000 theaters, paving the way for an easy repeat victory forAvengers: Infinity Warwith $154.5 million, which will set another box office record.

Our $154.5 million projection forAvengers: Infinity War’s second weekend will be good enough to break the all-timesecond weekend recordof $149.2 million, set byStar Wars: The Force Awakensin 2015.Star Wars: The Force Awakensonly dropped 39.8% in its second weekend, paving the way for its second weekend record, and our projection of $154.5 million represents a decrease of 40% from its record haul. Given the immense nature ofAvengers: Infinity War, which is simply so massive with so many implications for the MCU moving forward, that the re-watch value is quite high, and it may even pull off a more minimal decrease in the mid-30% range, but we won’t know for sure until Sunday.

If it pulls this second weekendbox officerecord off, then it should also be poised to topple the third weekend record of $90.2 million also set byStar Wars: The Force Awakens. Globally,Avengers: Infinity Warset another record with $640.9 million, easily eclipsing the $542 million mark set byThe Fate of the Furiouslast year. While the international opening weekend tally of $382.7 million was second best ever toThe Fate of The Furious, with $443 million,Avengers: Infinity Wardid so without the help of the second largest box office market in the world, China. WhenThe Fate of the Furiousset the international and global record last spring, $185 million came from China alone, nearly doubling the domestic opening weekend of $98.7 million.Avengers: Infinity Warwillopen in China on May 11.

As for the newcomers, Focus Features’Tullyopens in just 1,200 theaters, while Electric Entertainment’sBad Samaritanarrives in 1,800 theaters and Pantelion’sOverboarddebuts in 1,500 theaters. Those figures pale in comparison to the 4,474-theater debut ofAvengers: Infinity War, the second highest rollout ever behind Universal’sDespicable Me 3, which debuted in 4,529 theaters last summer. As of now,Tullyhas an impressive 92% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but no Tomatometer scores were given forBad SamaritanorOverboard.

We’re projecting that the top 10 will be rounded out byA Quiet Place($6.1 million),I Feel Pretty($4.2 million),Bad Samaritan($3.9 million),Rampage($3.8 million),Overboard($3.2 million),Black Panther($2.6 million),Tully($2.4 million),Super Troopers 2($2.1 million) andTruth or Dare($1.7 million). Looking ahead to next weekend, inAvengers: Infinity War’s third frame, only two newcomers will arrive in wide release, Universal’s thrillerBreaking Inand Warner Bros. comedyLife Of the Party. Take a look at our box office projections for the weekend of May 4 below, and check back on Sunday for the top 10 estimates, courtesy ofBox Office Mojo.