As thesummer movie seasonreaches its halfway point, it’s no secret that several of the year’s anticipated films haven’t been performing as expected. Worse, several of them have outright bombed. Just two weeks afterThe Flashproved a $200 million disaster for Warner Bros.,Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destinyopened to weaker-than-expected numbers, worse than its immediate predecessor fifteen years ago unadjusted for inflation.
Not that the film industry has ever entirely recovered from the COVID pandemic, but the frequency with which these films keep flopping is alarming, particularly since most now have upwards of $200 million budgets without marketing costs. And while major studios are understandably prioritizing their spectacles to attract audiences back to the theater, they may have to turn back to the kinds of films that kept them financially viable, the mid-budget and independent films, if they want to avoid potential catastrophe.
Blockbuster Budgets Have Needlessly Skyrocketed
It’s no secret that large portions of audiences took a lot of convincing to go back to the theater after the pandemic. So it makes sense that major studios would pour their focus into spectacles that demand to be seen on the big screen; just last year,Top Gun: MaverickandAvatar: The Way of Watermanaged to save the theater business from going under because they were rightly marketed as big theatrical events.
But focusing only on these kinds of films isn’t sustainable in the long run, even if it’s a short-term gain. Even ten years ago, $200M+ budgets were becoming the norm, and things have only worsened since then. Just this year,The Flashhad a $200 million budget,Indiana Jonescost $295 million, andFast Xhad a whopping $340 million behind it.
All of these figuresarewithoutmarketing costsand take into consideration that half of a film’s theatrical gross usually goes to theater chains. These films literally have to be among the highest-grossing ever just to break even.
Related:Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny: Ending, Explained
Obviously, COVID restrictions and delayed productions contributed to these numbers, but it doesn’t change the fact that studios are pouring too much money into their tentpoles to the point where simply breaking even is becoming much harder than necessary. Back in 2013,Steven Spielberg famously predictedthat the industry was in a bubble and that a potential series of high-budget bombs could destabilize the business.
And considering thatIndiana Jonesis now the third film in as many weeks to open to disastrous numbers, it’s not hard to imagine that Spielberg’s words are proving prophetic. In an uncertain market, studios need tentpoles to stay financially viable, but if they can’t make any money because their budgets escalated out of control, that spells a frightening future for the entire industry.
Independent and Mid-Budget Films Are Coming Back
What’s most worrying about this is since studios are putting all their eggs in their blockbuster baskets, if things keep going bad, there may not be a safety net to save them from financial disaster. So what can be done to prevent this? The answer is simple; studios used to be kept financially viable through their lower to mid-budget films and now may be the time to return to that business model.
One might show skepticism at this idea, as independent theaters and films were hit the hardest financially by the pandemic. Indeed,only five of the Oscar nomineesfor Best Picture last year grossed over $20 million domestically. But consider the runaway success of the Best Picture winner,Everything Everywhere All At Once; it had a budget of only $15-25 million and grossed over $100 million worldwide, all thanks to its massive critical acclaim and word of mouth.
And consider one of this year’s surprise hits,Asteroid City. This film was also hugely critically acclaimed, and partially due to director Wes Anderson’s significant cult following, it recentlyearned thehighest per-theater average grossfor a specialty release sinceLa La Landin 2016.
This proves that, despite admittedly less guarantee for smaller-scale breakout hits in a post-pandemic landscape, that word of mouth and quality are still powerful forces in the theatrical landscape. And more importantly, instead of recklessly pouring all their resources into their tentpoles, studios can and should expand their attention to these kinds of films, as they could provide a financial cushion in the case of a big-budget bomb.
Related:Ultimate Summer Movie Guide: 66 Movies to Watch in 2023
New and Upcoming Mid-Budget and Indie Films to Check Out
If one needs recommendations for smaller-scale films to check out, there’s already a strong handful in theaters now. As previously mentioned,Asteroid Cityis a funny, quirky, and melancholy work sure to delight Wes Anderson fans. And the new Korean drama,Past Lives, is the best film of the year so far,creatively playing with romantic genre conventions.
The next few months hold some potentially interesting titles on the way as well. July 7 sees the release ofJoy Ride, a crowd-pleasing raunchy comedy starringEverything Everywhere All At Oncebreakout star Stephanie Hsu. It was an audience favorite at this year’s South by Southwest Festival and currently has a 97% on Rotten Tomatoes.
July 14 sees the release of the mockumentaryTheater Camp, which played extremely well at Sundance, and its hilarious trailer promises a clever Christopher Guest-type look at theater kids at summer camp. AndTalk to Me, a supernatural horror film distributed by indie darling A24, releases on July 28 after strong showings at both Sundance and South by Southwest.
All of these films need just as much support as the blockbusters do, particularly in a season in which most of the blockbusters have failed to impress. Supporting them will allow studios to take notice of their success and thus be more likely to continue to back them in the future since they’d provide enough viable income to compensate for other potential box office disasters.
